DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0307.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84994184268
论文题名: The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing
作者: van der Wiel K. ; Kapnick S.B. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Cooke W.F. ; Delworth T.L. ; Jia L. ; Murakami H. ; Underwood S. ; Zeng F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 22 起始页码: 7991
结束页码: 8012
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Storms
; Climate sensitivity
; Coupled climate model
; Extreme events
; Extreme precipitation
; Highest resolutions
; Intrinsic variabilities
; Model evaluation/performance
; Precipitation extremes
; Climate models
英文摘要: Precipitation extremes have a widespread impact on societies and ecosystems; it is therefore important to understand current and future patterns of extreme precipitation. Here, a set of new global coupled climate models with varying atmospheric resolution has been used to investigate the ability of these models to reproduce observed patterns of precipitation extremes and to investigate changes in these extremes in response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The atmospheric resolution was increased from 2° × 2° grid cells (typical resolution in the CMIP5 archive) to 0.25° × 0.25° (tropical cyclone permitting). Analysis has been confined to the contiguous United States (CONUS). It is shown that, for these models, integrating at higher atmospheric resolution improves all aspects of simulated extreme precipitation: spatial patterns, intensities, and seasonal timing. In response to 2 × CO2 concentrations, all models show a mean intensification of precipitation rates during extreme events of approximately 3%-4% K-1. However, projected regional patterns of changes in extremes are dependent on model resolution. For example, the highest-resolution models show increased precipitation rates during extreme events in the hurricane season in the U.S. Southeast; this increase is not found in the low-resolution model. These results emphasize that, for the study of extreme precipitation there is a minimum model resolution that is needed to capture the weather phenomena generating the extremes. Finally, the observed record and historical model experiments were used to investigate changes in the recent past. In part because of large intrinsic variability, no evidence was found for changes in extreme precipitation attributable to climate change in the available observed record. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50079
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
van der Wiel K.,Kapnick S.B.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(22)