DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0195.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84982068868
论文题名: Intensification of the western north pacific anticyclone response to the short decaying El Niño event due to greenhouse warming
作者: Chen W. ; Lee J.-Y. ; Ha K.-J. ; Yun K.-S. ; Lu R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 10 起始页码: 3607
结束页码: 3627
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Decay (organic)
; Global warming
; Nickel
; Anthropogenic global warming
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Greenhouse warming
; Historical periods
; Interannual variability
; Multi-model ensemble
; Precipitation anomalies
; Western North Pacific
; Climate models
; annual variation
; anticyclone
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; El Nino
; ensemble forecasting
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation intensity
; twenty first century
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Central)
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Two types of El Niño evolution have been identified in terms of the lengths of their decaying phases: the first type is a short decaying El Niño that terminates in the following summer after the mature phase, and the second type is a long decaying one that persists until the subsequent winter. The responses of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) anomaly to the two types of evolution are remarkably different. Using experiments fromphase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study investigates how well climate models reproduce the two types of El Niño evolution and their impacts on theWNPAC in the historical period (1950-2005) and how they will change in the future under anthropogenic global warming. To reduce uncertainty in future projection, the nine best models are selected based on their performance in simulating El Niño evolution. In the historical run, the nine best models' multimodel ensemble (B9MME) well reproduces the enhanced (weakened)WNPAC that is associated with the short (long) decaying El Niño. The comparison between results of the historical run for 1950-2005 and the representative concentration pathway 4.5 run for 2050-99 reveals that individual models and the B9MMEtend to project no significant changes in the two types of El Niño evolution for the latter half of the twenty-first century. However, theWNPAC response to the short decaying El Niño is considerably intensified, being associated with the enhanced negative precipitation anomaly response over the equatorial central Pacific. This enhancement is attributable to the robust increase in mean and interannual variability of precipitation over the equatorial central Pacific under global warming. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NRF, National Research Foundation of Korea
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50105
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Research Center for Climate Sciences, Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Chen W.,Lee J.-Y.,Ha K.-J.,et al. Intensification of the western north pacific anticyclone response to the short decaying El Niño event due to greenhouse warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(10)