DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0039.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84994047193
论文题名: Intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change tied to Pacific Ocean warming pattern
作者: Zheng X.-T. ; Xie S.-P. ; Lv L.-H. ; Zhou Z.-Q.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 20 起始页码: 7265
结束页码: 7279
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Global warming
; Nickel
; Rain
; Surface waters
; ENSO
; Geographic location
; Interannual variability
; Pacific ocean
; Variability
; Oceanography
; amplitude
; annual variation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; sea surface temperature
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: How El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change under global warming affects changes in extreme events around the world. The change of ENSO amplitude is investigated based on the historical simulations and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The projected change in ENSO amplitude is highly uncertain with large intermodel uncertainty. By using the relative sea surface temperature (SST) as a measure of convective instability, this study finds that the spatial pattern of tropical Pacific surface warming is the major source of intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. In models with an enhanced mean warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the barrier to deep convection is reduced, and the intensified rainfall anomalies of ENSO amplify the wind response and hence SST variability. In models with a reduced eastern Pacific warming, conversely, ENSO amplitude decreases. Corroborating the mean SST pattern effect, intermodel uncertainty in changes of ENSO-induced rainfall variability decreases substantially in atmospheric simulations forced by a common ocean warming pattern. Thus, reducing the uncertainty in the Pacific surface warming pattern helps improve the reliability of ENSO projections. To the extent that correcting model biases favors an El Niño-like mean warming pattern, this study suggests an increase in ENSO-related SST variance likely under global warming. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50125
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Key Laboratory of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zheng X.-T.,Xie S.-P.,Lv L.-H.,et al. Intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change tied to Pacific Ocean warming pattern[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(20)