DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0505.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983491141
论文题名: Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming
作者: Zhu X. ; Bye J. ; Fraedrich K. ; Bordi I.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 16 起始页码: 5935
结束页码: 5947
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Earth (planet)
; Global warming
; Nickel
; Climate variability and climate change
; Eastern tropical pacific
; Equilibrium simulations
; Future climate projections
; Geographical locations
; Linear relationships
; Statistical structures
; Surface temperatures
; Climate models
英文摘要: Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. Here, a new climate metric is proposed to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over nonoverlapping 100-yr segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last-millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-99), and the 3100-yr unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and is thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50128
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Physics, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Zhu X.,Bye J.,Fraedrich K.,et al. Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(16)