DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0407.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957818468
论文题名: A track pattern-based seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Atlantic
作者: Choi W. ; Ho C.-H. ; Kim J. ; Kim H.-S. ; Feng S. ; Kang K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 2 起始页码: 481
结束页码: 494
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Applications
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Diseases
; Hurricanes
; Tropics
; Forecast verification/skill
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal variability
; Tropical cyclone
; Variability
; Forecasting
; atmosphere-ocean system
; climate prediction
; forecasting method
; global climate
; seasonal variation
; spatial distribution
; tropical cyclone
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Gulf of Mexico
英文摘要: A seasonal prediction model of tropical cyclone (TC) activities for the period August-October over the North Atlantic (NA) has been developed on the basis of TC track patterns. Using the fuzzy c-means method, a total of 432 TCs in the period 1965-2012 are categorized into the following four groups: 1) TCs off the U.S. East Coast, 2) TCs over the Gulf of Mexico, 3) TCs that recurve into the open ocean of the central NA, and 4) TCs that move westward in the southern NA. The model is applied to predict the four TC groups separately in conjunction with global climate forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). By adding the distributions of the four TC tracks with precalculated weighting factors, this seasonal TC forecast model provides the spatial distribution of TC activities over the entire NA basin. Multiple forecasts initialized in six consecutive months from February to July are generated atmonthly intervals to examine the applicability of thismodel in operational TC forecasting. Cross validations of individual forecasts show that the model can reasonably predict the observed TC frequencies over NA at the 99% confidence level. The model shows a stable spatial prediction skill, proving its advantage for forecasting regional TC activities severalmonths in advance. In particular, themodel can generate reliable information on regional TC counts in the near-coastal regions as well as in the entire NA basin. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50160
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; School of Ocean Science and Technology, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Pusan, South Korea; Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States; National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju-do, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Choi W.,Ho C.-H.,Kim J.,et al. A track pattern-based seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Atlantic[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(2)