DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0635.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85000997218
论文题名: Dominant time scales of potentially predictable precipitation variations across the continental United States
作者: Anderson B.T. ; Gianotti D.J.S. ; Salvucci G. ; Furtado J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 24 起始页码: 8881
结束页码: 8897
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Location
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Spectrum analysis
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; Climate variability
; Low-frequency variations
; Multi-decadal time scale
; Multidecadal variability
; North America
; Northwestern United States
; Precipitation characteristics
; Spectral analysis/models/distribution
; Time measurement
英文摘要: While low-frequency variations in precipitation amount, occurrence counts (hereafter "occurrence"), and intensity can take place on seasonal to multidecadal time scales, it is often unclear at which time scales these precipitation variations can be ascribed to potentially predictable, climate-induced changes versus simple, stochastic (i.e., random) precipitation event evolutions. This paper seeks to isolate the dominant time scales at which potentially predictable changes in observed precipitation characteristics occur over the continental United States and analyze sources of revealed potentially predictable precipitation variations for particular regions. The results highlight that at interannual time scales (here defined as those shorter than 7 years), the potential for predicting annual precipitation amounts tends to be higher than for annual event occurrence or intensity, with interannual potential predictability highest in both relatively dry and wet locations and lowest in transition regions. By contrast, at time scales greater than 7 years the potential for predicting annual event occurrence tends to be higher than amount or intensity, with > 20-yr time scale potential predictability highest in relatively wet locations and lowest in relatively dry locations. To highlight the utility of this type of analysis, two robust signals are selected for further investigation, including 1) approximately 10-yr time scale variations in potentially predictable annual amounts over the northwestern United States and 2) 20-60-yr time scale variations in potentially predictable annual event occurrence over the southwestern United States. While mechanistic drivers for these observed variations are still being investigated, concurrent and precursor climate-state estimates in the atmosphere and ocean-principally over the Pacific sector-are provided, the monitoring of which may help realize the potential for predicting precipitation variations in these regions. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50168
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States; School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Anderson B.T.,Gianotti D.J.S.,Salvucci G.,et al. Dominant time scales of potentially predictable precipitation variations across the continental United States[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(24)