DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0754.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84995537869
论文题名: An assessment of future southern hemisphere blocking using CMIP5 projections from four GCMs
作者: Parsons S. ; Renwicka J.A. ; McDonald A.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 21 起始页码: 7599
结束页码: 7611
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Antarctic oscillation
; Blocking
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; General circulation model
; Historical simulation
; Negative correlation
; nocv1
; South pacific oceans
; Southern Annular Mode
; Climate models
英文摘要: This study is concerned with blocking events (BEs) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), their past variability, and future projections. ERA-Interim (ERA-I) is used to compare the historical output from four general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5); the output of the representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projections are also examined. ERA-I shows that the higher latitudes of the South Pacific Ocean (SPO) are the main blocking region, with blocking occurring predominantly in winter. The CMIP5 historical simulations also agree well with ERA-I for annual and seasonal BE locations and frequencies. A reduction in BEs is observed in the SPO in the 2071-2100 period in the RCP4.5 projections, and this is more pronounced for the RCP8.5 projections and occurs predominantly during the spring and summer seasons. Preliminary investigations imply that the southern annular mode (SAM) is negatively correlated with blocking activity in the SPO in all seasons in the reanalysis. This negative correlation is also observed in the GCM historical output. However, in the RCP projections this correlation is reduced in three of the four models during summer, suggesting that SAM may be less influential in summertime blocking in the future. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50221
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand; Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Parsons S.,Renwicka J.A.,McDonald A.J.. An assessment of future southern hemisphere blocking using CMIP5 projections from four GCMs[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(21)