DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0341.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84996605494
论文题名: Quantifying the uncertainty in historical and future simulations of Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover
作者: Thackeray C.W. ; Fletcher C.G. ; Mudryk L.R. ; Derksen C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 23 起始页码: 8647
结束页码: 8663
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climatology
; Earth (planet)
; Snow
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate variability
; General circulation model
; Model evaluation/performance
; Satellite observations
; Snow covers
; Trends
; Climate models
英文摘要: Projections of twenty-first-century Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring snow cover extent (SCE) from two climate model ensembles are analyzed to characterize their uncertainty. Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble exhibits variability resulting from both model differences and internal climate variability, whereas spread generated from a Canadian Earth System Model-Large Ensemble (CanESM-LE) experiment is solely a result of internal variability. The analysis shows that simulated 1981-2010 spring SCE trends are slightly weaker than observed (using an ensemble of snow products). Spring SCE is projected to decrease by -3.7% ± 1.1% decade-1 within the CMIP5 ensemble over the twenty-first century. SCE loss is projected to accelerate for all spring months over the twenty-first century, with the exception of June (because most snow in this month has melted by the latter half of the twenty-first century). For 30-yr spring SCE trends over the twenty-first century, internal variability estimated from CanESM-LE is substantial, but smaller than intermodel spread from CMIP5. Additionally, internal variability in NH extratropical land warming trends can affect SCE trends in the near future (R2 = 0.45), while variability in winter precipitation can also have a significant (but lesser) impact on SCE trends. On the other hand, a majority of the intermodel spread is driven by differences in simulated warming (dominant in March-May) and snow cover available for melt (dominant in June). The strong temperature-SCE linkage suggests that model uncertainty in projections of SCE could be potentially reduced through improved simulation of spring season warming over land. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50234
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada; Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Thackeray C.W.,Fletcher C.G.,Mudryk L.R.,et al. Quantifying the uncertainty in historical and future simulations of Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(23)