DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0352.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957824678
论文题名: Quantifying the sources of intermodel spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity
作者: Caldwell P.M. ; Zelinka M.D. ; Taylor K.E. ; Marvel K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 2 起始页码: 513
结束页码: 524
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Feedback
; Statistics
; Climate sensitivity
; Cloud feedbacks
; Forcing
; Model Differences
; New approaches
; Specific humidity
; Statistical techniques
; Temperature response
; Climate models
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; numerical model
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: This study clarifies the causes of intermodel differences in the global-average temperature response to doubled CO2, commonly known as equilibriumclimate sensitivity (ECS). The authors begin by noting several issues with the standard approach for decomposing ECS into a sum of forcing and feedback terms. This leads to a derivation of an alternative method based on linearizing the effect of the net feedback. Consistent with previous studies, the new method identifies shortwave cloud feedback as the dominant source of intermodel spread in ECS. This new approach also reveals that covariances between cloud feedback and forcing, between lapse rate and longwave cloud feedbacks, and between albedo and shortwave cloud feedbacks play an important and previously underappreciated role in determining model differences in ECS. Defining feedbacks based on fixed relative rather than specific humidity (as suggested by Held and Shell) reduces the covariances between processes and leads to more straightforward interpretations of results. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: DOE, Office of Science
; LLNL, Office of Science
; SC, Office of Science
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50237
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Lawrence Livermore National Lab, Livermore, CA, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Caldwell P.M.,Zelinka M.D.,Taylor K.E.,et al. Quantifying the sources of intermodel spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(2)