DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0063.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957828231
论文题名: Quantifying climate forcings and feedbacks over the last millennium in the CMIP5-PMIP3 models
作者: Atwood A.R. ; Wu E. ; Frierson D.M.W. ; Battisti D.S. ; Sachs J.P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 3 起始页码: 1161
结束页码: 1178
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Budget control
; Feedback
; Greenhouse gases
; Land use
; Perturbation techniques
; Sea ice
; Snow
; Solar radiation
; Climate model simulations
; General circulation model
; Multi-model ensemble
; Paleoclimates
; Radiative fluxes
; Radiative forcings
; Radiative perturbation
; Water vapor feedbacks
; Climate models
; climate feedback
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; cooling
; ensemble forecasting
; general circulation model
; greenhouse gas
; paleoclimate
; radiative forcing
英文摘要: The role of radiative forcings and climate feedbacks on global cooling over the last millennium is quantified in the CMIP5-PMIP3 transient climate model simulations. Changes in the global energy budget over the last millennium are decomposed into contributions from radiative forcings and climate feedbacks through the use of the approximate partial radiative perturbation method and radiative kernels. Global cooling occurs circa 1200-1850 CE in the multimodel ensemble mean with pronounced minima corresponding with volcanically active periods that are outside the range of natural variability. Analysis of the global energy budget during the last millennium indicates that Little Ice Age (LIA; 1600-1850 CE) cooling is largely driven by volcanic forcing (comprising an average of 65% of the total forcing among models), while contributions due to changes in land use (13%), greenhouse gas concentrations (12%), and insolation (10%) are substantially lower. The combination of these forcings directly contributes to 47% of the global cooling during the LIA, while the remainder of the cooling arises from the sum of the climate feedbacks. The dominant positive feedback is the water vapor feedback, which contributes 29% of the global cooling. Additional positive feedbacks include the surface albedo feedback (which contributes 7%of the global cooling and arises owing to high-latitude sea ice expansion and increased snow cover) and the lapse rate feedback (which contributes an additional 7% of the global cooling and arises owing to greater cooling near the surface than aloft in the middle and high latitudes). © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50278
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Atwood A.R.,Wu E.,Frierson D.M.W.,et al. Quantifying climate forcings and feedbacks over the last millennium in the CMIP5-PMIP3 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(3)