DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0222.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84982743638
论文题名: Seasonal-interannual variation and prediction of wet and dry season rainfall over the maritime continent: Roles of ENSO and monsoon circulation
作者: Zhang T. ; Yang S. ; Jiang X. ; Zhao P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 10 起始页码: 3675
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Drought
; Forecasting
; Nickel
; Circulation patterns
; East Asian winter monsoon
; Interannual variation
; Monsoon circulations
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Rainfall variation
; Southern oscillation
; Wet and dry seasons
; Rain
; annual variation
; atmospheric circulation
; climate prediction
; dry season
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; hindcasting
; monsoon
; rainfall
; seasonal variation
; wet season
; Borneo
; Greater Sunda Islands
; Sumatra
; Sunda Isles
英文摘要: The authors analyze the seasonal-interannual variations of rainfall over the Maritime Continent (MC) and their relationships with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and large-scale monsoon circulation. They also investigate the predictability of MC rainfall using the hindcast of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). The seasonal evolution ofMCrainfall is characterizedbyawet season fromDecember toMarchandadry season from July toOctober. The increased (decreased) rainfall in the wet season is related to the peak-decaying phase of La Niña (ElNiño), whereas the increased (decreased) rainfall in the dry season is related to the developing phase of La Niña (El Niño), with an apparent spatial incoherency of the SST-rainfall relationship in the wet season. For extremely wet cases of the wet season, local warm SST also contributes to the above-normal rainfall over the MC except for the western area of the MC due to the effect of the strong East Asian winter monsoon. The CFSv2 shows high skill in predicting the main features of MC rainfall variations and their relationships with ENSO and anomalies of the large-scale monsoon circulation, especially for strong ENSO years. It predicts the rainfall and its related circulation patterns skillfully in advance by several months, especially for the dry season. The relatively lower skill of predicting MC rainfall for the wet season is partly due to the low prediction skill of rainfall over Sumatra, Malay, and Borneo (SMB), as well as the unrealistically predicted relationship between SMB rainfall and ENSO. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50294
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu, Sichuan, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang T.,Yang S.,Jiang X.,et al. Seasonal-interannual variation and prediction of wet and dry season rainfall over the maritime continent: Roles of ENSO and monsoon circulation[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(10)