DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0098.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84988001530
论文题名: Large-scale controls on atlantic tropical cyclone activity on seasonal time scales
作者: Lim Y.-K. ; Schubert S.D. ; Reale O. ; Molod A.M. ; Suarez M.J. ; Auer B.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 18 起始页码: 6727
结束页码: 6749
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Earth atmosphere
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; NASA
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Superconducting materials
; Tropics
; Climate variability
; ENSO
; General circulation model
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Seasonal forecasting
; Variability
; Climatology
英文摘要: Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well-known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic) led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Niño index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that the predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to subtropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50298
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States; I. M. Systems Group, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Rockville, MD, United States; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Universities Space Research Association, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD, United States; Science Systems and Applications Inc., Lanham, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lim Y.-K.,Schubert S.D.,Reale O.,et al. Large-scale controls on atlantic tropical cyclone activity on seasonal time scales[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(18)