DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0129.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84950112786
论文题名: Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios
作者: Knutson T.R. ; Sirutis J.J. ; Zhao M. ; Tuleya R.E. ; Bender M. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Villarini G. ; Chavas D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 18 起始页码: 7203
结束页码: 7224
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Dynamical downscaling
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; High-resolution atmospheric models
; Horizontal grid spacing
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Multi-model ensemble
; Sea surface temperatures
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Hurricanes
; climate change
; CMIP
; downscaling
; hurricane
; tropical cyclone
; typhoon
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., "cold wake" generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980-2008) for a "control run" with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained from a phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) multimodel ensemble. In general agreement with most previous studies, projections with this framework indicate fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer late-twenty-first-century climate, but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, precipitation rates, and the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms. While these changes are apparent in the globally averaged tropical cyclone statistics, they are not necessarily present in each individual basin. The interbasin variation of changes in most of the tropical cyclone metrics examined is directly correlated to the variation in magnitude of SST increases between the basins. Finally, the framework is shown to be capable of reproducing both the observed global distribution of outer storm size-albeit with a slight high bias-and its interbasin variability. Projected median size is found to remain nearly constant globally, with increases in most basins offset by decreases in the northwest Pacific. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; URI, University of Rhode Island
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50360
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, United States; IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Knutson T.R.,Sirutis J.J.,Zhao M.,et al. Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(18)