| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00201.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84962226624
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| 论文题名: | Spatial patterns of global precipitation change and variability during 1901-2010 |
| 作者: | Gu G.; Adler R.F.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 28, 期:11 | | 起始页码: | 4431
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| 结束页码: | 4453
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Climate variability
; Inter-decadal variability
; Multidecadal variability
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Trends
; Aerosols
; aerosol
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate variation
; computer simulation
; decadal variation
; greenhouse gas
; numerical model
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; precipitation assessment
; spatial variation
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| 英文摘要: | This study examines global precipitation changes/variations during 1901-2010 by using the long-record GPCC land precipitation analysis, the NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS) reconstructed (RECONS) precipitation analysis, and the CMIP5 outputs. In particular, spatial features of long-term precipitation changes and trends and decadal/interdecadal precipitation variations are explored by focusing on the effects of various physical mechanisms such as the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol forcings and certain internal oscillations including the Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Precipitation increases in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid- to high-latitude lands observed in GPCC can also be found in RECONS and model simulations. Over tropical/subtropical land areas, precipitation reductions generally appear in all products, but with large discrepancies on regional scales. Over ocean, consistent spatial structures of precipitation change also exist between RECONS and models. It is further found that these long-term changes/trends might be due to both anthropogenic GHG and aerosols. The aerosol effect estimated from CMIP5 historical simulations is then removed from the GPCC, RECONS, and AMIP simulations. These isolated GHG-related changes/trends have many similar spatial features when compared to the CMIP5 GHG-only simulations, especially in the zonal-mean context. Both PDV and AMO have influence on spatial patterns of precipitation variations during the past century. In the NH middle to high latitudes, PDV and AMO have played an important role on interdecadal/multidecadal time scales. In several tropical/subtropical regions, their impacts may even become dominant for certain time spans including the recent past two decades. Therefore, these two internal mechanisms make the estimations of GHG and aerosol effects on precipitation on decadal/interdecadal time scales very challenging, especially on regional scales. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50382
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Gu G.,Adler R.F.. Spatial patterns of global precipitation change and variability during 1901-2010[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(11)
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