DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978421035
论文题名: Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment
作者: Corti S. ; Palmer T. ; Balmaseda M. ; Weisheimer A. ; Drijfhout S. ; Dunstone N. ; Hazeleger W. ; Kröger J. ; Pohlmann H. ; Smith D. ; Von Storch J.-S. ; Wouters B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 11 起始页码: 4454
结束页码: 4470
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Surface waters
; Climate prediction
; Decadal variability
; Inter-decadal variability
; Model comparison
; Oceanic variabilities
; Oceanography
; atmospheric forcing
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; oceanic circulation
; sea surface temperature
; sensitivity analysis
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Northwest)
; Southern Ocean
英文摘要: The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two initial dates in 1965 and 1995 using either the external forcings from the "correct" decades or swapping the forcings between the two decades. By comparing the two sets of integrations, the impact of external forcing versus initial conditions on the predictability over multiannual time scales was estimated as the function of lead time of the hindcast. It was found that over time scales longer than about 1 yr, the predictability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a global scale arises mainly from the external forcing. However, the correct initialization has a longer impact on SST predictability over specific regions such as the North Atlantic, the northwestern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The impact of initialization is even longer and extends to wider regions when below-surface ocean variables are considered. For the western and eastern tropical Atlantic, the impact of initialization for the 700-m heat content (HTC700) extends to as much as 9 years for some of the models considered. In all models the impact of initial conditions on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is dominant for the first 5 years. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50391
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Bologna, Italy; Department of Physics, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Netherlands eScience Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Corti S.,Palmer T.,Balmaseda M.,et al. Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(11)