DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00745.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942926780
论文题名: On the internal variability of simulated daily precipitation
作者: Schindler A. ; Toreti A. ; Zampieri M. ; Scoccimarro E. ; Gualdi S. ; Fukutome S. ; Xoplaki E. ; Luterbacher J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 9 起始页码: 3624
结束页码: 3630
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Statistical tests
; Vehicle routing
; Climate model simulations
; Climate variability
; Coupled general circulation models
; Daily precipitations
; False discovery rate
; Internal precipitation
; Internal variability
; Precipitation distribution
; Climate models
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; precipitation (climatology)
英文摘要: Climate model simulations are currently the main tool to provide information about possible future climates. Apart from scenario uncertainties and model error, internal variability is a major source of uncertainty, complicating predictions of future changes. Here, a suite of statistical tests is proposed to determine the shortest time window necessary to capture the internal precipitation variability in a stationary climate. The length of this shortest window thus expresses internal variability in terms of years. The method is applied globally to daily precipitation in a 200-yr preindustrial climate simulation with the CMCC-CM coupled general circulation model. The two-sample Cramér-von Mises test is used to assess differences in precipitation distribution, the Walker test accounts for multiple testing at grid cell level, and field significance is determined by calculating the Bejamini-Hochberg false-discovery rate. Results for the investigated simulation show that internal variability of daily precipitation is regionally and seasonally dependent and that regions requiring long time windows do not necessarily coincide with areas with large standard deviation. The estimated time scales are longer over sea than over land, in the tropics than in midlatitudes, and in the transitional seasons than in winter and summer. For many land grid cells, 30 seasons suffice to capture the internal variability of daily precipitation. There exist regions, however, where even 50 years do not suffice to sample the internal variability. The results show that diagnosing daily precipitation change at different times based on fixed global snapshots of one climate simulation might not be a robust detection method. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50412
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy; Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Schindler A.,Toreti A.,Zampieri M.,et al. On the internal variability of simulated daily precipitation[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(9)