DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00695.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945956521
论文题名: Toward assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American monsoon: Future climate simulations
作者: Bukovsky M.S. ; Carrillo C.M. ; Gochis D.J. ; Hammerling D.M. ; McCrary R.R. ; Mearns L.O.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 17 起始页码: 6707
结束页码: 6728
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Atmosphere-ocean global climate model
; Monsoons
; North America
; North American Monsoon System
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate simulation
; Regional model
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; Mexico [North America]
; United States
英文摘要: This study presents climate change results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) suite of dynamically downscaled simulations for the North American monsoon system in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The focus is on changes in precipitation and the processes driving the projected changes from the regional climate simulations and their driving coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. The effect of known biases on the projections is also examined. Overall, there is strong ensemble agreement for a large decrease in precipitation during the monsoon season; however, this agreement and the magnitude of the ensemble-mean change is likely deceiving, as the greatest decreases are produced by the simulations that are the most biased in the baseline/current climate. Furthermore, some of the greatest decreases in precipitation are being driven by changes in processes/phenomena that are less credible (e.g., changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation, when it is initially not simulated well). In other simulations, the processes driving the precipitation change may be plausible, but other biases (e.g., biases in low-level moisture or precipitation intensity) appear to be affecting the magnitude of the projected changes. The most and least credible simulations are clearly identified, while the other simulations are mixed in their abilities to produce projections of value. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50415
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bukovsky M.S.,Carrillo C.M.,Gochis D.J.,et al. Toward assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American monsoon: Future climate simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(17)