globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00675.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84950150160
论文题名:
The rainfall sensitivity of tropical net primary production in CMIP5 Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century simulations
作者: Negrón-Juárez R.I.; Riley W.J.; Koven C.D.; Knox R.G.; Taylor P.G.; Chambers J.Q.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:23
起始页码: 9313
结束页码: 9331
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Clouds ; Oceanography ; Tropics ; Climate sensitivity ; Empirical correlations ; General circulation model ; Global climate model ; Net primary production ; Physical mechanism ; Southern Hemisphere ; Top of the atmospheres ; Climate models ; climate effect ; climate modeling ; cloud radiative forcing ; computer simulation ; general circulation model ; global climate ; global warming ; net primary production ; rainfall ; Southern Hemisphere ; stratocumulus ; twentieth century ; twenty first century
英文摘要: Recent efforts to narrow the spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) across global climate models have focused on identifying observationally based constraints, which are rooted in empirical correlations between ECS and biases in the models' present-day climate. This study reexamines one such constraint identified from CMIP3 models: the linkage between ECS and net top-of-the-atmosphere radiation biases in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). As previously documented, the intermodel spread in the ECS of CMIP3 models is linked to present-day cloud and net radiation biases over the midlatitude Southern Ocean, where higher cloud fraction in the present-day climate is associated with larger values of ECS. However, in this study, no physical explanation is found to support this relationship. Furthermore, it is shown here that this relationship disappears in CMIP5 models and is unique to a subset of CMIP models characterized by unrealistically bright present-day clouds in the SH subtropics. In view of this evidence, Southern Ocean cloud and net radiation biases appear inappropriate for providing observationally based constraints on ECS. Instead of the Southern Ocean, this study points to the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regions of the SH subtropical oceans as key to explaining the intermodel spread in the ECS of both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. In these regions, ECS is linked to present-day cloud and net radiation biases with a plausible physical mechanism: models with brighter subtropical clouds in the present-day climate show greater ECS because 1) subtropical clouds dissipate with increasing CO2 concentrations in many models and 2) the dissipation of brighter clouds contributes to greater solar warming of the surface. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50443
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Negrón-Juárez R.I.,Riley W.J.,Koven C.D.,et al. The rainfall sensitivity of tropical net primary production in CMIP5 Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(23)
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