DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0341.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957669689
论文题名: Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate
作者: Bonfils C.J.W. ; Santer B.D. ; Phillips T.J. ; Marvel K. ; Ruby Leung L. ; Doutriaux C. ; Capotondi A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 24 起始页码: 9997
结束页码: 10013
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Climate variability
; ENSO
; General circulation model
; Regional effects
; Variability
; Climate change
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric dynamics
; climate change
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; general circulation model
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; twenty first century
英文摘要: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50448
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; University of Colorado, NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bonfils C.J.W.,Santer B.D.,Phillips T.J.,et al. Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(24)