DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00111.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922784631
论文题名: Dynamical adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature field: Methodology and application to observations
作者: Smoliak B.V. ; Wallace J.M. ; Lin P. ; Fu Q.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 4 起始页码: 1613
结束页码: 1629
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Principal component analysis
; Regression analysis
; Sea level
; Atmospheric circulation changes
; Northern Hemispheres
; Partial least-squares regression
; Principal Components
; Sea level pressure
; Seasonal differences
; Spatial structure
; Surface air temperatures
; Least squares approximations
; air temperature
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric dynamics
; least squares method
; Northern Hemisphere
; principal component analysis
; radiative forcing
; sea level pressure
; thermodynamics
英文摘要: The influence of atmospheric circulation changes reflected in spontaneously occurring sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies upon surface air temperature (SAT) variability and trends is investigated using partial least squares (PLS) regression, a statistical method that seeks to maximally explain covariance between a predictand time series or field and a predictor field. Applying PLS regression in any one of the three variants described in this study (pointwise, PC-wise, and fieldwise), the method yields a dynamical adjustment to the observed NH SAT field that accounts for approximately 50% of the variance in monthly mean, cold season data. It is shown that PLS regression provides a more parsimonious and statistically robust dynamical adjustment than an adjustment method based on the leading principal components of the extratropical SLP field. The usefulness of dynamical adjustment is demonstrated by applying it to the attribution of cold season SAT trends in two reference intervals: 1965-2000 and 1920-2011. The adjustment is shown to reconcile much of the spatial structure and seasonal differences in the observed SAT trends. The dynamically adjusted SAT fields obtained from this analysis provide datasets capable of being analyzed for residual variability and trends associated with thermodynamic and radiative processes. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50464
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; The Climate Corporation, Seattle, WA, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University/NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Smoliak B.V.,Wallace J.M.,Lin P.,et al. Dynamical adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature field: Methodology and application to observations[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(4)