DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00517.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961289230
论文题名: Seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in GFDL's high-resolution climate prediction model
作者: Yang X. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Gudgel R.G. ; Delworth T.L. ; Zhang S. ; Rosati A. ; Jia L. ; Stern W.F. ; Wittenberg A.T. ; Kapnick S. ; Msadek R. ; Underwood S.D. ; Zeng F. ; Anderson W. ; Balaji V.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 9 起始页码: 3592
结束页码: 3611
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Sea level
; Storms
; Climate prediction
; Coupled models
; ENSO
; Extratropical cyclones
; Forecast verification/skill
; Interannual variability
; Climate models
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cyclone
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; jet flow
; sea level pressure
; seasonal variation
; storm track
; troposphere
; weather forecasting
; North America
英文摘要: The seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL)'s high-resolution climate model has been investigated using an average predictability time analysis. The leading predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are the ENSO-related spatial patterns for both boreal winter and summer, and the second predictable components are mostly due to changes in external radiative forcing and multidecadal oceanic variability. These two predictable components for both seasons show significant correlation skill for all leads from 0 to 9 months, while the skill of predicting the boreal winter storm track is consistently higher than that of the austral winter. The predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are dynamically consistent with the predictable components of the upper troposphere jet flow for both seasons. Over the regionwith strong storm-track signals in NorthAmerica, the model is able to predict the changes in statistics of extremes connected to storm-track changes (e.g., extreme low and high sea level pressure and extreme 2-m air temperature) in response to different ENSOphases. These results point toward the possibility of providing skillful seasonal predictions of the statistics of extratropical extremes over land using high-resolution coupled models. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50467
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Dynamics Research Corporation, Andover, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yang X.,Vecchi G.A.,Gudgel R.G.,et al. Seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in GFDL's high-resolution climate prediction model[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(9)