DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00355.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84949779216
论文题名: Dominating controls for wetter South Asian summer monsoon in the twenty-first century
作者: Mei R. ; Ashfaq M. ; Rastogi D. ; Leung L.R. ; Dominguez F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 8 起始页码: 3400
结束页码: 3419
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Dynamics
; Moisture
; Asian summer monsoons
; Atmospheric moisture content
; Moisture convergence
; Moisture sources
; Monsoon circulations
; Radiative forcings
; South Indian Ocean
; Summer monsoon precipitation
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; atmospheric moisture
; moisture content
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; radiative forcing
; regional climate
; summer
; twenty first century
; South Asia
英文摘要: This paper analyzes a suite of global climatemodels fromphase 5 of the CoupledModel IntercomparisonProject (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content throughwarmer temperatures, which overwhelmsthe weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, theBay of Bengal) and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to themoisture supply for precipitation over SouthAsia during the summer season that is facilitated by themonsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmosphericmoisture is offset byweakermonsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are eithermixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of themonsoon dynamics has less influence on themoisturesupply fromremotesources thatnotonlyis adominantmoisture contributor inthehistorical periodbut is also the net driver of the positive summermonsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. The results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50468
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Computer Science and Mathematics Division, Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mei R.,Ashfaq M.,Rastogi D.,et al. Dominating controls for wetter South Asian summer monsoon in the twenty-first century[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(8)