globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00646.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922782599
论文题名:
Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks
作者: Daloz A.S.; Camargo S.J.; Kossin J.P.; Emanuel K.; Horn M.; Jonas J.A.; Kim D.; Larow T.; Lim Y.-K.; Patricola C.M.; Roberts M.; Scoccimarro E.; Shaevitz D.; Vidale P.L.; Wang H.; Wehner M.; Zhao M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期:4
起始页码: 1333
结束页码: 1361
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate models ; Cluster analysis ; Oceanography ; Separation ; Surface waters ; Tropics ; Baroclinic cyclone ; Environmental fields ; Global climate model ; Horizontal resolution ; Possible futures ; Potential change ; Sea surface temperature (SST) ; Tropical cyclone ; Hurricanes ; climate modeling ; cluster analysis ; downscaling ; storm track ; tropical cyclone ; Atlantic Ocean ; Atlantic Ocean (North) ; United States
英文摘要: A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models withmoderate to high horizontal resolution (1°-0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks' seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors' results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others. © 2015 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: NSF, National Aeronautics and Space Administration ; NOAA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration ; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50516
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; School of Earth, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Center for Climate Systems, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research/I.M. Systems Group, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; Texas A and M University, College Station, TX, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Devon, United Kingdom; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, United States; Innovim, LLC, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States

Recommended Citation:
Daloz A.S.,Camargo S.J.,Kossin J.P.,et al. Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(4)
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