DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00664.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922780773
论文题名: Detection and attribution of climate change signal in ocean wind waves
作者: Dobrynin M. ; Murawski J. ; Baehr J. ; Ilyina T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 4 起始页码: 1578
结束页码: 1591
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Earth (planet)
; Oceanography
; Surface waves
; Water waves
; Wind
; Climate variability
; Control simulation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Detection and attributions
; Earth system model
; Modeling variability
; Natural variability
; Significant wave height
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate variation
; ocean wave
; surface wave
; wave height
; wind velocity
; wind wave
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
; Southern Ocean
英文摘要: Surface waves in the ocean respond to variability and changes of climate. Observations and modeling studies indicate trends in wave height over the past decades. Nevertheless, it is currently impossible to discern whether these trends are the result of climate variability or change. The output of an Earth system model (EC-EARTH) produced within phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is used here to force a global Wave Model (WAM) in order to study the response of waves to different climate regimes. A control simulation was run to determine the natural (unforced) model variability. A simplified fingerprint approach was used to calculate positive and negative limits of natural variability for wind speed and significant wave height, which were then compared to different (forced) climate regimes over the historical period (1850-2010) and in the future climate change scenario RCP8.5 (2010-2100). Detectable climate change signals were found in the current decade (2010-20) in the North Atlantic, equatorial Pacific, and Southern Ocean. Until the year 2060, climate change signals are detectable in 60% of the global ocean area. The authors show that climate change acts to generate detectable trends in wind speed and significant wave height that exceed the positive and the negative ranges of natural variability in different regions of the ocean. Moreover, in more than 3% of the ocean area, the climate change signal is reversible such that trends exceeded both positive and negative limits of natural variability at different points in time. These changes are attributed to local (due to local wind) and remote (due to swell) factors. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50523
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Germany; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Dobrynin M.,Murawski J.,Baehr J.,et al. Detection and attribution of climate change signal in ocean wind waves[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(4)