DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0149.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942926808
论文题名: The Madden-Julian oscillation and boreal winter forecast skill: An analysis of NCEP CFSv2 reforecasts
作者: Jones C. ; Hazra A. ; Carvalho L.M.V.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 15 起始页码: 6297
结束页码: 6307
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Meteorology
; Wind effects
; Atmospheric circulation
; Forecast verification/skill
; Intraseasonal variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
; Tropical variability
; Weather forecasting
; atmospheric circulation
; forecasting method
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Northern Hemisphere
; prediction
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; winter
英文摘要: The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the main mode of tropical intraseasonal variations and bridges weather and climate. Because the MJO has a slow eastward propagation and longer time scale relative to synoptic variability, significant interest exists in exploring the predictability of the MJO and its influence on extended-range weather forecasts (i.e., 2-4-week lead times). This study investigates the impact of the MJO on the forecast skill in Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. Several 45-day forecasts of geopotential height (500 hPa) from NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) reforecasts are used (1 November-31 March 1999-2010). The variability of the MJO expressed as different amplitudes, durations, and recurrence (i.e., primary and successive events) and their influence on forecast skill is analyzed and compared against inactive periods (i.e., null cases). In general, forecast skill during enhancedMJOconvection over the western Pacific is systematically higher than in inactive days. When the enhanced MJO convection is over the Maritime Continent, forecasts are lower than in null cases, suggesting potential model deficiencies in accurately forecasting the eastward propagation of the MJO over that region and the associated extratropical response. In contrast, forecasts are more skillful than null cases when the enhanced convection is over the western Pacific and during long, intense, and successiveMJOevents. These results underscore the importance of the MJO as a potential source of predictability on 2-4-week lead times. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50533
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jones C.,Hazra A.,Carvalho L.M.V.. The Madden-Julian oscillation and boreal winter forecast skill: An analysis of NCEP CFSv2 reforecasts[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(15)