DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00270.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942043503
论文题名: Scale-dependent performance of CMIP5 earth system models in simulating terrestrial vegetation carbon
作者: Jiang L. ; Yan Y. ; Hararuk O. ; Mikle N. ; Xia J. ; Shi Z. ; Tjiputra J. ; Wu T. ; Luo Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 13 起始页码: 5217
结束页码: 5232
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Forecasting
; Residence time distribution
; Uncertainty analysis
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Earth system model
; Goodness of fit
; Intermodel variability
; Model intercomparisons
; Sources of uncertainty
; Terrestrial vegetation
; Underlying cause
; Vegetation
; carbon balance
; carbon cycle
; carbon sink
; climate modeling
; database
; global perspective
; performance assessment
; spatial distribution
; tropical region
; vegetation cover
英文摘要: Model intercomparisons and evaluations against observations are essential for better understanding of models' performance and for identifying the sources of uncertainty in their output. The terrestrial vegetation carbon simulated by 11 Earth system models (ESMs) involved in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) was evaluated in this study. The simulated vegetation carbon was compared at three distinct spatial scales (grid, biome, and global) among models and against the observations (an updated database from Olson et al.'s ''Major World Ecosystem Complexes Ranked by Carbon in Live Vegetation: A Database''). Moreover, the underlying causes of the differences in themodels' predictions were explored. Model- data fit at the grid scale was poor but greatly improved at the biome scale. Large intermodel variability was pronounced in the tropical and boreal regions, where total vegetation carbon stocks were high.While 8 out of 11 ESMs reproduced the global vegetation carbon to within 20% uncertainty of the observational estimate (560±112 PgC), the simulated global totals varied nearly threefold between the models. The goodness of fit of ESMs in simulating vegetation carbon depended strongly on the spatial scales. Sixty-three percent of the variability in contemporary global vegetation carbon stocks across ESMs could be explained by differences in vegetation carbon residence time across ESMs (P < 0.01). The analysis indicated that ESMs' performance of vegetation carbon predictions can be substantially improved through better representation of plant longevity (i.e., carbon residence time) and its respective spatial distributions. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50537
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; School of Life Science and Institute of Wetland Ecology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Jiang L.,Yan Y.,Hararuk O.,et al. Scale-dependent performance of CMIP5 earth system models in simulating terrestrial vegetation carbon[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(13)