DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00776.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84926058962
论文题名: Nitrogen availability reduces CMIP5 projections of twenty-first-century land carbon uptake
作者: Zaehle S. ; Jones C.D. ; Houlton B. ; Lamarque J.-F. ; Robertson E.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 6 起始页码: 2494
结束页码: 2511
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Earth (planet)
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Fossil fuels
; Meteorological problems
; Nitrogen
; Atmospheric depositions
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Ecological models
; Ecosystem effects
; Fossil fuel emissions
; Land surface modeling
; Nitrogen availability
; Vegetation-atmosphere interactions
; Climate models
; atmospheric chemistry
; carbon balance
; carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; carbon sequestration
; climate change
; climate modeling
; ecological modeling
; land surface
; nitrogen
; twenty first century
英文摘要: Coupled carbon cycle-climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), Earth system model ensemble simulate the effects of changes in anthropogenic fossil-fuel emissions and ensuing climatic changes on the global carbon (C) balance but largely ignore the consequences of widespread terrestrial nitrogen (N) limitation. Based on plausible ranges of terrestrial C:N stoichiometry, this study investigates whether the terrestrial C sequestration projections of nine CMIP5 models for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are consistent with estimates of N supply from increased biological fixation, atmospheric deposition, and reduced ecosystem N losses. Discrepancies between the timing and places of N demand and supply indicated increases in terrestrial N implicit to the projections of all nine CMIP5 models under all scenarios that are larger than the estimated N supply. Omitting N constraints leads to an overestimation of land C sequestration in these models between the years 1860 and 2100 by between 97 Pg C (69-252 Pg C; RCP 2.6) and 150 Pg C (57-323 Pg C; RCP 8.5), with a large spread across models. The CMIP5 models overestimated the average 2006-2100 fossil-fuel emissions required to keep atmospheric CO2 levels on the trajectories described in the RCP scenarios by between 0.6 Pg C yr-1 (0.4-2.2 Pg C yr-1; RCP 2.6) and 1.2 Pg C yr-1 (0.5-3.3 Pg C yr-1; RCP 8.5). If unabated, reduced land C sequestration would enhance CO2 accumulation in the ocean and atmosphere, increasing atmospheric CO2 burden by 26 ppm (16-88 ppm; RCP 2.6) to 61 ppm (29-147 ppm; RCP 8.5) by the year 2100. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50555
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Biogeochemical Integration Department, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, United States; Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zaehle S.,Jones C.D.,Houlton B.,et al. Nitrogen availability reduces CMIP5 projections of twenty-first-century land carbon uptake[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(6)