DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0102.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942025135
论文题名: The 3- 4-week MJO prediction skill in a GFDL coupled model
作者: Xiang B. ; Zhao M. ; Jiang X. ; Lin S.-J. ; Li T. ; Fu X. ; Vecchi G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 13 起始页码: 5351
结束页码: 5364
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Forecasting
; Anomaly correlations
; Coupled modeling
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Indian ocean experiments
; Initial conditions
; Intraseasonal variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Strong dependences
; Climatology
; accuracy assessment
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; experimental study
; hindcasting
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; performance assessment
英文摘要: Based on a new version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the Madden- Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill in boreal wintertime (November- April) is evaluated by analyzing 11 years (2003- 13) of hindcast experiments. The initial conditions are obtained by applying a simple nudging technique toward observations. Using the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index as a predictand, it is demonstrated that the MJO prediction skill can reach out to 27 days before the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) decreases to 0.5. The MJO forecast skill also shows relatively larger contrasts between target strong and weak cases (32 versus 7 days) than between initially strong and weak cases (29 versus 24 days). Meanwhile, a strong dependence on target phases is found, as opposed to relative skill independence from different initial phases. The MJO prediction skill is also shown to be about 29 days during the Dynamics of the MJO/Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in Year 2011 (DYNAMO/ CINDY) field campaign period. This model's potential predictability, the upper bound of prediction skill, extends out to 42 days, revealing a considerable unutilized predictability and a great potential for improving current MJO prediction. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50572
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; International Pacific Research Center, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Xiang B.,Zhao M.,Jiang X.,et al. The 3- 4-week MJO prediction skill in a GFDL coupled model[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(13)