DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00847.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957708561
论文题名: Dynamical downscaling-based projections of great lakes water levels
作者: Notaro M. ; Bennington V. ; Lofgren B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 24 起始页码: 9721
结束页码: 9745
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climatology
; Evaporation
; Hydrology
; Lakes
; Water levels
; Climate variability
; Freshwater
; Geographic location
; Inland seas
; Regional model
; Variability
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climatology
; downscaling
; global climate
; hydrology
; inland sea
; Great Lakes Basin
英文摘要: Projections of regional climate, net basin supply (NBS), and water levels are developed for the mid- and late twenty-first century across the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Two state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RCM) interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model, and then a hydrologic routing model is forced with time series of perturbed NBS. The dynamical downscaling and coupling with a lake model to represent the Great Lakes create added value beyond the parent GCM in terms of simulated seasonal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, limitations related to this rudimentary treatment of the Great Lakes result in warm summer biases in lake temperatures, excessive ice cover, and an abnormally early peak in lake evaporation. While the downscaling of both GCMs led to consistent projections of increases in annual air temperature, precipitation, and all NBS components (overlake precipitation, basinwide runoff, and lake evaporation), the resulting projected water level trends are opposite in sign. Clearly, it is not sufficient to correctly simulate the signs of the projected change in each NBS component; one must also account for their relative magnitudes. The potential risk of more frequent episodes of lake levels below the low water datum, a critical shipping threshold, is explored. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50607
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; NOAA, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Notaro M.,Bennington V.,Lofgren B.. Dynamical downscaling-based projections of great lakes water levels[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(24)