DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00164.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84920285700
论文题名: Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific
作者: Mei W. ; Xie S.-P. ; Zhao M. ; Wang Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 1 起始页码: 143
结束页码: 167
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Oceanography
; Orthogonal functions
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; Empirical orthogonal function analysis
; High-resolution atmospheric models
; Sea surface temperatures
; Tropical cyclone
; Hurricanes
; air-sea interaction
; annual variation
; atmospheric modeling
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; sea surface temperature
; storm track
; tropical cyclone
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; South China Sea
英文摘要: Forced interannual-to-decadal variability of annual tropical cyclone (TC) track density in the western North Pacific between 1979 and 2008 is studied using TC tracks from observations and simulations by a 25-km-resolution version of the GFDL High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Two modes dominate the decadal variability: a nearly basinwide mode, and a dipole mode between the subtropics and lower latitudes. The formermode links to variations in TCnumber and is forced by SST variations over the off-equatorial tropical central North Pacific, whereas the latter might be associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. The interannual variability is also controlled by two modes: a basinwide mode driven by SST anomalies of opposite signs located in the tropical central Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean, and a southeast-northwest dipolemode connected to the conventional eastern Pacific ENSO. The seasonal evolution of the ENSO effect on TC activity is further explored via a joint empirical orthogonal function analysis using TC track density of consecutive seasons, and the analysis reveals that two types of ENSO are at work. Internal variability in TC track density is then examined using ensemble simulations from both HiRAM and a regional atmospheric model. It exhibits prominent spatial and seasonal patterns, and it is particularly strong in the South China Sea and along the coast of East Asia. Thismakes an accurate prediction and projection of TClandfall extremely challenging in these regions. In contrast, basin-integrated metrics (e.g., total TC counts and TC days) are more predictable. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50706
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; International Pacific Research Center, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mei W.,Xie S.-P.,Zhao M.,et al. Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(1)