DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00842.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942887860
论文题名: Development and evaluation of an objective criterion for the real-time prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset in a coupled model framework
作者: Joseph S. ; Sahai A.K. ; Abhilash S. ; Chattopadhyay R. ; Borah N. ; Mapes B.E. ; Rajeevan M. ; Kumar A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 15 起始页码: 6234
结束页码: 6248
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Fighter aircraft
; Forecasting
; Rain
; Dynamical predictions
; Ensemble prediction systems
; Government of India
; Indian summer monsoon
; Initial conditions
; Meteorological parameters
; Objective criteria
; Real-time prediction
; Weather forecasting
; ensemble forecasting
; jet flow
; monsoon
; parameterization
; prediction
; rainfall
; real time
; summer
; weather forecasting
; wind field
; India
; Kerala
英文摘要: This study reports an objective criterion for the real-time extended-range prediction of monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), using circulation as well as rainfall information from the 16 May initial conditions of the Grand Ensemble Prediction System based on the coupled model CFSv2. Three indices are defined, one from rainfall measured over Kerala and the others based on the strength and depth of the low-level westerly jet over the Arabian Sea. While formulating the criterion, the persistence of both rainfall and low-level wind after theMOKdate has been considered to avoid the occurrence of "bogus onsets" that are unrelated to the large-scale monsoon system. It is found that the predicted MOKdate matches well with the MOKdate declared by the India Meteorological Department, the authorized principal weather forecasting agency under the government of India, for the period 2001-14. The proposed criterion successfully avoids predicting bogus onsets, which is a major challenge in the prediction of MOK. Furthermore, the evolution of various model-predicted large-scale and local meteorological parameters corresponding to the predicted MOK date is in good agreement with that of the observation, suggesting the robustness of the devised criterion and the suitability of CFSv2 model for MOK prediction. However, it should be noted that the criterion proposed in the present study can be used only in the dynamical prediction framework, as it necessitates input data on the future evolution of rainfall and low-level wind. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50743
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Joseph S.,Sahai A.K.,Abhilash S.,et al. Development and evaluation of an objective criterion for the real-time prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset in a coupled model framework[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(15)