DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0145.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947720963
论文题名: Representation of African easterly waves in CMIP5 models
作者: Martin E.R. ; Thorncroft C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 19 起始页码: 7702
结束页码: 7715
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospherics
; Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Kinetic energy
; Kinetics
; Oceanography
; Rain
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Waves
; Africa
; African easterly waves
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Eddy kinetic energy
; Future projections
; Historical simulation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; easterly wave
; rainfall
; tropical cyclone
; Africa
; Atlantic Ocean
英文摘要: African easterly waves (AEWs) can act as seed disturbances for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic, and changes in futureAEWactivity may have important consequences for development of TCs. The simulation of AEWs was investigated using output from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suite of experiments, including coupled historical and future simulations and atmosphere only (AMIP) simulations. Large biases exist in the simulation of low- (850 hPa) and midlevel (700 hPa) eddy kinetic energy (EKE, a proxy forAEWactivity) in AMIP and historical simulations. CMIP5 models simulate excessive EKE and deficient rainfall south of 17°N. The same biases exist in historical and AMIP models and are not a consequence of errors in sea surface temperatures. The models also struggle to accurately couple AEWs and rainfall, with little improvement from CMIP3 models. CMIP5 models are unable to propagate AEWs across the coast and into the Atlantic, which is shown to be related to the resolution of the Guinea Highlands. Future projections of the annual cycle of AEW activity show a reduction in late spring and early summer and a large increase between July and October that is consistent with rainfall projections in the Sahel, but large differences exists in future projections between high- and low-resolution models. The simulation of AEWs is challenging for CMIP5 models and must be further diagnosed in order to accurately predict future TC activity and rainfall in the Sahel. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50809
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Martin E.R.,Thorncroft C.. Representation of African easterly waves in CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(19)