DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00860.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84941736098
论文题名: Causes of the 2011-14 California drought
作者: Seager R. ; Hoerling M. ; Schubert S. ; Wang H. ; Lyon B. ; Kumar A. ; Nakamura J. ; Henderson N.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 18 起始页码: 6997
结束页码: 7024
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Nickel
; Tropics
; Atmosphere models
; Ensemble simulation
; High-pressure ridges
; Natural variability
; Pacific decadal variabilities
; Precipitation deficits
; SST anomalies
; Winter precipitation
; Drought
; atmospheric modeling
; computer simulation
; drought
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; winter
; California
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
; United States
英文摘要: The causes of the California drought during November-April winters of 2011/12-2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters aremost commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Niño event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Niña event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west-cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern.Allmodels contain amode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the NorthAmericanwest coast.Thismode explains less variance than ENSOand Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surfacemoisture deficits during the drought.As such, the precipitation deficit during the droughtwas dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed andmodeled tropical SST trends. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50848
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; NOAA/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Seager R.,Hoerling M.,Schubert S.,et al. Causes of the 2011-14 California drought[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(18)