DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0377.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957693316
论文题名: On the variability and predictability of eastern pacific tropical cyclone activity
作者: Caron L.-P. ; Boudreault M. ; Camargo S.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 24 起始页码: 9678
结束页码: 9696
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Geographic location
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Interannual variability
; North Pacific Ocean
; Seasonal forecasting
; Statistical forecasting
; Tropical cyclone
; Variability
; Oceanography
; annual variation
; atmosphere-ocean system
; climate prediction
; hurricane
; Poisson ratio
; tropical cyclone
; weather forecasting
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (East)
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate influence on cyclone activity in this region. The authors show that local sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content as well as large-scale conditions in the northern Atlantic are the dominant influence in modulating eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The results also support previous findings suggesting that the influence of the Atlantic Ocean occurs through changes in dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific. Using model selection algorithms, the authors then proceed to construct a statistical model of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The various model selection techniques used agree in selecting one predictor from the Atlantic (northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature) and one predictor from the Pacific (relative sea surface temperature) to represent the best possible model. Finally, we show that this simple model could have predicted the anomalously high level of activity observed in 2014. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50854
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Forecasting Unit, Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Mathematics, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Caron L.-P.,Boudreault M.,Camargo S.J.. On the variability and predictability of eastern pacific tropical cyclone activity[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(24)