DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00722.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942902218
论文题名: The ENSO-precipitation teleconnection and its modulation by the interdecadal pacific oscillation
作者: Westra S. ; Renard B. ; Thyer M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 12 起始页码: 4753
结束页码: 4773
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Low pass filters
; Modulation
; Nickel
; Piecewise linear techniques
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Climate variability
; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations
; Inter-decadal variability
; Low frequency variability
; Model misspecification
; Precipitation relationships
; Precipitation teleconnection
; Statistical artifacts
; Climatology
; annual variation
; atmospheric pressure
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; precipitation (climatology)
; stratification
; teleconnection
; Australia
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: This study evaluates the role of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-precipitation relationship. The standard IPO index is described together with several alternatives that were derived using a low-frequency ENSO filter, demonstrating that an equivalent IPO index can be obtained as a low-frequency version of ENSO. Several statistical artifacts that arise from using a combination of raw and smoothed ENSO indices in modeling the ENSO-precipitation teleconnection are then described. These artifacts include the potentially spurious identification of low-frequency variability in a response variable resulting from the use of smoothed predictors and the potentially spurious modulation of a predictor-response relationship by the low-frequency version of the predictor under model misspecification. The role of the IPO index in modulating the ENSO-precipitation relationship is evaluated using a global gridded precipitation dataset, based on three alternative statistical models: stratified, linear, and piecewise linear. In general, the information brought by the IPO index, beyond that already contained in the Niño-3.4 index, is limited and not statistically significant. An exception is in northeastern Australia using annual precipitation data, and only for the linear model. Stratification by the IPO index induces a nonlinear ENSO-precipitation relationship, suggesting that the apparent modulation by the IPO is likely to be spurious and attributable to the combination of sample stratification and model misspecification. Caution is therefore required when using smoothed climate indices to model or explain low-frequency variability in precipitation. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50857
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Civil, Environmental, and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; Irstea Lyon-Villeurbanne, UR HHLY Hydrology-Hydraulics, Lyon, France
Recommended Citation:
Westra S.,Renard B.,Thyer M.. The ENSO-precipitation teleconnection and its modulation by the interdecadal pacific oscillation[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(12)