DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00531.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961290048
论文题名: Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall in Southeast Asia
作者: Villafuerte M.Q. ; Matsumoto J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 5 起始页码: 1905
结束页码: 1919
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Maximum likelihood
; Nickel
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Asia
; ENSO
; Statistical techniques
; Trends
; Tropical variability
; Climate change
; climate change
; El Nino
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; La Nina
; precipitation intensity
; rainfall
; temperature gradient
; Indochina
; Philippines
英文摘要: This study investigates the changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily rainfall (RX1day) in Southeast Asia, obtained from gauge-based gridded precipitation data, to address the increasing concerns about climate change in the region. First, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect significant trends in RX1day. Then, maximum likelihood modeling, which allows the incorporation of covariates in the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, was conducted to determine whether the rising global mean temperature, as well as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is influencing extreme rainfall over the region. The findings revealed that annual and seasonal RX1day is significantly increasing in Indochina and east-central Philippines while decreasing in most parts of the Maritime Continent during the past 57 yr (1951-2007). The trends in RX1day were further linked to the rising global mean temperature. It was shown that the location parameter of the GEV-and hence the RX1day on average-has significantly covaried with the annually averaged near-surface global mean temperature anomaly. Such covariation is pronouncedly observed over the regions where significant trends in RX1day were detected. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that, as ENSO develops in July-September, negative covariations between the location parameter of the GEV and the ENSO index, implying a higher (lower) likelihood of extreme rainfall during La Niña (El Niño), were observed over the Maritime Continent. Such conditions progress northward to the regions of Indochina and the Philippines as ENSO approaches its maturity in October-December and then retreat southward as the ENSO weakens in the ensuing seasons. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: JSPS, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology
; JSPS, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology
; MEXT, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50863
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan; Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Department of Science and Technology, Quezon City, Philippines; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Villafuerte M.Q.,Matsumoto J.. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall in Southeast Asia[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(5)