DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00360.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945925373
论文题名: Canadian RCM projected transient changes to precipitation occurrence, intensity, and return level over North America
作者: Jalbert J. ; Favre A.-C. ; Bélisle C. ; Angers J.-F. ; Paquin D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 17 起始页码: 6920
结束页码: 6937
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Continuous time systems
; Greenhouse gases
; Statistics
; Time series
; Atmospheric greenhouse
; Daily precipitations
; Model output statistics
; Nonstationary process
; Precipitation change
; Probabilistic modeling
; Regional climate modeling
; Statistical techniques
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation assessment
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; statistical analysis
; time series
; Canada
; Mexico [North America]
; United States
英文摘要: As a consequence of the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, potential changes in both precipitation occurrence and intensity may lead to several consequences for Earth's environment. It is therefore relevant to estimate these changes in order to anticipate their consequences. Many studies have been published on precipitation changes based on climate simulations. These studies are almost always based on time slices; precipitation changes are estimated by comparing two 30-yr windows. To this extent, it is commonly assumed that nonstationary processes are not significant for such a 30-yr slice. Thus, it frees the investigator to statistically model nonstationary processes. However, using transient runs instead of time slices surely leads to more accurate analysis since more data are taken into account. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to develop a transient probabilistic model for describing simulated daily precipitation from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) in order to investigate precipitation evolution over North America. Changes to both the occurrence and intensity of precipitation are then assessed from a continuous time period. Extreme values are also investigated with the transient run; a new methodology using the models for precipitation occurrence and intensity was developed for achieving nonstationary frequency analysis. The results herein show an increase in both precipitation occurrence and intensity for most parts of Canada while a decrease is expected over Mexico. For the continental United States, a decrease in both occurrence and intensity is expected in summer but an increase is expected in winter. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50879
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Département de Mathématiques et de Statistique, Université Laval, Quebec, QC, Canada; Université Grenoble Alpes, LTHE, Grenoble, France; Département de Mathématiques et de Statistique, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada; Simulations et Analyses Climatiques, Consortium Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Jalbert J.,Favre A.-C.,Bélisle C.,et al. Canadian RCM projected transient changes to precipitation occurrence, intensity, and return level over North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(17)