DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0127.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945902497
论文题名: The climatic importance of uncertainties in regional aerosol-cloud radiative forcings over recent decades
作者: Regayre L.A. ; Pringle K.J. ; Lee L.A. ; Rap A. ; Browse J. ; Mann G.W. ; Reddington C.L. ; Carslaw K.S. ; Booth B.B. ; Woodhouse M.T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 17 起始页码: 6589
结束页码: 6607
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Bayesian networks
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Emission control
; Oceanography
; Parameterization
; Radiation effects
; Storms
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Time measurement
; Aerosol radiative forcing
; Bayesian methods
; Cloud forcing
; ENSO
; Extratropical cyclones
; Parametric uncertainties
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Uncertainty contributions
; Aerosols
; aerosol formation
; albedo
; Bayesian analysis
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; parameterization
; radiative forcing
; tropical cyclone
; volcanic cloud
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (East)
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Regional patterns of aerosol radiative forcing are important for understanding climate change on decadal time scales. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing is likely to vary regionally and seasonally because of the short aerosol lifetime and heterogeneous emissions. Here the sensitivity of regional aerosol cloud albedo effect (CAE) forcing to 31 aerosol process parameters and emission fluxes is quantified between 1978 and 2008. The effects of parametric uncertainties on calculations of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation are found to be spatially and temporally dependent. Regional uncertainty contributions of opposite sign cancel in global-mean forcing calculations, masking the regional importance of some parameters. Parameters that contribute little to uncertainty in Earth's global energy balance during recent decades make significant contributions to regional forcing variance. Aerosol forcing sensitivities are quantified within 11 climatically important regions, where surface temperatures are thought to influence large-scale climate effects. Substantial simulated uncertainty in CAE forcing in the eastern Pacific leaves open the possibility that apparent shifts in the mean ENSO state may result from a forced aerosol signal on multidecadal time scales. A likely negative aerosol CAE forcing in the tropical North Atlantic calls into question the relationship between Northern Hemisphere aerosol emission reductions and CAE forcing of sea surface temperatures in the main Atlantic hurricane development region on decadal time scales. Simulated CAE forcing uncertainty is large in the North Pacific, suggesting that the role of the CAE in altering Pacific tropical storm frequency and intensity is also highly uncertain. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50884
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Regayre L.A.,Pringle K.J.,Lee L.A.,et al. The climatic importance of uncertainties in regional aerosol-cloud radiative forcings over recent decades[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(17)