DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947709586
论文题名: Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home
作者: Li S. ; Mote P.W. ; Rupp D.E. ; Vickers D. ; Mera R. ; Allen M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 19 起始页码: 7470
结束页码: 7488
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Mean annual precipitation
; Mean annual temperatures
; Model evaluation
; Orographic enhancement
; Performance
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate modeling
; Western United States
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; El Nino
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; high temperature
; performance assessment
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; California
; Cascade Range
; Nevada
; Sierra Nevada [California]
; United States
英文摘要: Simulations from a regional climatemodel (RCM) as part of a superensemble experiment were compared with observations of surfacemeteorological variables over the western United States. The RCM is the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model, version 3, with improved physics parameterizations (HadRM3P) run at 25-km resolution and nested within the Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model, version 3 (HadAM3P). Overall, the means of seasonal temperaturewerewell represented in the simulations; 95%of grid pointswerewithin 2.7°, 2.4°, and 3.6°C of observations in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. The model was too warm over most of the domain in summer except central California and southern Nevada. HadRM3P produced more extreme temperatures than observed. The overall magnitude and spatial pattern of precipitation were well characterized, though HadRM3P exaggerated the orographic enhancement along the coastal mountains, Cascade Range, and Sierra Nevada. HadRM3P produced warm/dry northwest, cool/wet southwest U.S. patterns associated with El Niño. However, there were notable differences, including the locations of the transition from warm (dry) to cool (wet) in the anomaly fields when compared with observations, though there was disagreement among observations. HadRM3P simulated the observed spatial pattern of mean annual temperature more faithfully than any of the RCM-GCM pairings in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Errors in mean annual precipitation from HadRM3P fell within the range of errors of the NARCCAP models. Last, this paper provided examples of the size of an ensemble required to detect changes at the local level and demonstrated the effect of parameter perturbation on regional precipitation. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: USDA, U.S. Department of Agriculture
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50889
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC, United States; Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Li S.,Mote P.W.,Rupp D.E.,et al. Evaluation of a regional climate modeling effort for the western United States using a superensemble from weather@home[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(19)