DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00044.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84920276258
论文题名: Quantifying the effects of long-term climate change on tropical cyclone rainfall using a cloud-resolving model: Examples of two landfall typhoons in Taiwan
作者: Wang C.-C. ; Lin B.-X. ; Chen C.-T. ; Lo S.-H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 1 起始页码: 66
结束页码: 85
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Budget control
; Climate models
; Hurricanes
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Storms
; Cloud resolving model
; Cloud resolving simulations
; North Pacific Ocean
; Secondary circulation
; Sensitivity tests
; Tropical cyclone
; Water budget
; Water budget analysis
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; rainfall
; tropical cyclone
; typhoon
; water budget
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Taiwan
英文摘要: To quantify the effects of long-term climate change on typhoon rainfall near Taiwan, cloud-resolving simulations of Typhoon (TY) Sinlaku and TY Jangmi, both in September 2008, are performed and compared with sensitivity tests where these same typhoons are placed in the climate background of 1950-69, which is slightly cooler and drier compared to themodern climate of 1990-2009 computed using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. Using this strategy, largely consistent responses are found in themodel although only two cases are studied. In control experiments, bothmodern-day typhoons yield more rainfall than their counterpart in the sensitivity test using past climate, by about 5%-6% at 200-500km from the center for Sinlaku and roughly 4%-7% within 300 km of Jangmi, throughout much of the periods simulated. In both cases, the frequency of more-intense rainfall (20 to >50mmh-1) also increases by about 5%-25%and the increase tends to be larger toward higher rain rates. Results fromthe water budget analysis, again quite consistent between the two cases, indicate that the increased rainfall from the typhoons in the modern climate is attributable to both a moister environment (by 2.5%-4%) as well as, on average, a more active secondary circulation of the storm. Thus, a changing climate may already have had a discernible impact on TC rainfall near Taiwan. While an overall increase in TC rainfall of roughly 5%may not seemlarge, it is certainly not insignificant considering that the long-termtrend observed in the past 40-50 yr, whatever the causes might be, may continue for many decades in the foreseeable future. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50897
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan
Recommended Citation:
Wang C.-C.,Lin B.-X.,Chen C.-T.,et al. Quantifying the effects of long-term climate change on tropical cyclone rainfall using a cloud-resolving model: Examples of two landfall typhoons in Taiwan[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(1)