DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0243.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84955192573
论文题名: Effects of climatological model biases on the projection of tropical climate change
作者: Zhou Z.-Q. ; Xie S.-P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2015
卷: 28, 期: 24 起始页码: 9909
结束页码: 9917
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Earth atmosphere
; Forecasting
; Global warming
; Oceanography
; Rain
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Climate prediction
; Geographic location
; Rainbands
; Walker circulation
; Climate models
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climatology
; rainband
; Walker circulation
英文摘要: Climate models suffer from long-standing biases, including the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) problem and the excessive westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. An atmospheric general circulation model is used to investigate how model biases in the mean state affect the projection of tropical climate change. The model is forced with a pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase derived from a coupled simulation of global warming but uses an SST climatology derived from either observations or a coupled historical simulation. The comparison of the experiments reveals that the climatological biases have important impacts on projected changes in the tropics. Specifically, during February-April when the climatological ITCZ displaces spuriously into the Southern Hemisphere, the model overestimates (underestimates) the projected rainfall increase in the warmer climate south (north) of the equator over the eastern Pacific. Furthermore, the global warming-induced Walker circulation slowdown is biased weak in the projection using coupled model climatology, suggesting that the projection of the reduced equatorial Pacific trade winds may also be underestimated. This is related to the bias that the climatological Walker circulation is too weak in the model, which is in turn due to a too-weak mean SST gradient in the zonal direction. The results highlight the importance of improving the climatological simulation for more reliable projections of regional climate change. © 2015 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50903
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, Qingdao, China; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhou Z.-Q.,Xie S.-P.. Effects of climatological model biases on the projection of tropical climate change[J]. Journal of Climate,2015-01-01,28(24)