DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00332.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84893185564
论文题名: Use of APHRODITE rain gauge-based precipitation and TRMM 3B43 products for improving asian monsoon seasonal precipitation forecasts by the superensemble method
作者: Yatagai A. ; Krishnamurti T.N. ; Kumar V. ; Mishra A.K. ; Simon A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 3 起始页码: 1062
结束页码: 1069
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Cross-validation technique
; Florida State University
; Multi-model superensemble
; Precipitation predictions
; Seasonal climate forecast
; Seasonal precipitations
; Statistical downscaling
; Tropical rainfall measuring missions
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Gages
; Water resources
; Weather forecasting
; Rain gages
; climate modeling
; database
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; model validation
; monsoon
; performance assessment
; precipitation assessment
; raingauge
; TRMM
; weather forecasting
; Asia
英文摘要: A multimodel superensemble developed by the Florida State University combines multiple model forecasts based on their past performance (training phase) to make a consensus forecast. Because observed precipitation reflects local characteristics such as orography, quantitative high-resolution precipitation products are useful for downscaling coarse model outputs. The Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 products are used for downscaling and as training data in the superensemble training phase. Seven years (1998-2004) of monthly precipitation (June-August) over the Asian monsoon region (0°-50°N, 60°-150°E) and results of four coupled climate models were used. TRMM 3B43 was adjusted by APHRODITE (m-TRMM). For seasonal climate forecasts, a synthetic superensemble technique was used. A cross-validation technique was adopted, in which the year to be forecast was excluded from the calculations for obtaining the regression coefficients. The principal results are as follows: 1) Seasonal forecasts of Asian monsoon precipitation were considerably improved by use of APHRODITE rain gauge-based data or them-TRMMproduct. These forecasts aremuch superior to those from the best model of the suite and ensemble mean. 2) Use of a statistical downscaling and synthetic superensemble method for multimodel forecasts of seasonal climate significantly improved precipitation prediction at higher resolution. This is confirmed by cross-evaluation of superensemble with using other observation data than the data used in the training phase. 3) Availability of a dense rain gauge network based analysis was essential for the success of this work. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50945
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Yatagai A.,Krishnamurti T.N.,Kumar V.,et al. Use of APHRODITE rain gauge-based precipitation and TRMM 3B43 products for improving asian monsoon seasonal precipitation forecasts by the superensemble method[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(3)