DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00125.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84919624670
论文题名: Predictability of the barents sea ice in early winter: Remote effects of oceanic and atmospheric thermal conditions from the North Atlantic
作者: Nakanowatari T. ; Sato K. ; Inoue J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 23 起始页码: 8884
结束页码: 8901
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Weather forecasting
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; Atmospheric cooling
; Canonical correlation analysis
; Diagnostic analysis
; Forecasting accuracy
; Meridional surface wind
; Sea ice concentration
; Subsurface temperature
; Atmospheric temperature
; accuracy assessment
; atmospheric circulation
; marine atmosphere
; prediction
; sea ice
; temperature anomaly
; weather forecasting
; winter
; Arctic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Barents Sea
英文摘要: Predictability of sea ice concentrations (SICs) in the Barents Sea in early winter (November-December) is studied using canonical correlation analysis with atmospheric and ocean anomalies from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data. It is found that the highest prediction skill for a single-predictormodel is obtained from the 13-month lead subsurface temperature at 200-m depth (T200) and the in-phase meridional surface wind (Vsfc). T200 skillfully predicts SIC variability in 35% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the eastern side. The T200 for negative sea ice anomalies exhibits warm anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature downstream of the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC) on a decadal time scale. The diagnostic analysis of NCEP CFSR data suggests that the subsurface temperature anomaly stored below the thermocline during summer reemerges in late autumn by atmospheric cooling and affects the sea ice. The subsurface temperature anomaly of the NwASC is advected from the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over ~3 years. Also, Vsfc skillfully predicts SIC variability in 32% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the western side. The Vsfc for the negative sea ice anomalies exhibits southerly wind anomalies; Vsfc is related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Eurasian continent. This study suggests that both atmospheric and oceanic remote effects have a potential impact on the forecasting accuracy of SIC. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51012
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Tachikawa, Japan; Research and Development Center for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan; National Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Nakanowatari T.,Sato K.,Inoue J.. Predictability of the barents sea ice in early winter: Remote effects of oceanic and atmospheric thermal conditions from the North Atlantic[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(23)