DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00475.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84916225185
论文题名: Tropical cyclone simulation and response to CO2 doubling in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model
作者: Kim H.-S. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Knutson T.R. ; Anderson W.G. ; Delworth T.L. ; Rosati A. ; Zeng F. ; Zhao M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 21 起始页码: 8034
结束页码: 8054
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Geographical distribution
; Global warming
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Shear flow
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Coupled climate model
; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories
; Horizontal resolution
; Hurricane frequency
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southern oscillation
; Tropical cyclone
; Vertical wind shear
; Climate models
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; geographical distribution
; global warming
; hurricane
; seasonal variation
; tropical cyclone
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Global tropical cyclone (TC) activity is simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Climate Model, version 2.5 (CM2.5), which is a fully coupled global climate model with a horizontal resolution of about 50km for the atmosphere and 25km for the ocean. The present climate simulation shows a fairly realistic global TC frequency, seasonal cycle, and geographical distribution. The model has some notable biases in regional TC activity, including simulating too few TCs in the North Atlantic. The regional biases in TC activity are associated with simulation biases in the large-scale environment such as sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and vertical velocity. Despite these biases, the model simulates the large-scale variations of TC activity induced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation fairly realistically. The response of TC activity in the model to global warming is investigated by comparing the present climate with a CO2 doubling experiment. Globally, TC frequency decreases (219%) while the intensity increases (12.7%) in response to CO2 doubling, consistent with previous studies. The average TC lifetime decreases by 24.6%, while the TC size and rainfall increase by about 3% and 12%, respectively. These changes are generally reproduced across the different basins in terms of the sign of the change, although the percent changes vary from basin to basin and within individual basins. For the Atlantic basin, although there is an overall reduction in frequency from CO2 doubling, the warmed climate exhibits increased interannual hurricane frequency variability so that the simulated Atlantic TC activity is enhanced more during unusually warm years in the CO2-warmed climate relative to that in unusually warm years in the control climate. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51036
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Willis Research Network, London, United Kingdom; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Ocean Science and Technology School, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kim H.-S.,Vecchi G.A.,Knutson T.R.,et al. Tropical cyclone simulation and response to CO2 doubling in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(21)