DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00846.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84892501558
论文题名: A framework for evaluating model credibility for warm-season precipitation in northeastern north america: A case study of CMIP5 simulations and projections
作者: Thibeault J.M. ; Seth A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 2 起始页码: 493
结束页码: 510
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric process
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Critical component
; Geopotential height anomalies
; Moisture convergence
; Precipitation variability
; Summer precipitation
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Moisture control
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Sea level
; Computer simulation
; accuracy assessment
; anticyclone
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; climatology
; computer simulation
; convergence
; error analysis
; future prospect
; moisture transfer
; precipitation assessment
; seasonal variation
; uncertainty analysis
; weather forecasting
; North America
英文摘要: Future projections of northeastern North American warm-season precipitation [June-August (JJA)] indicate substantial uncertainty. Atmospheric processes important to the northeast-region JJA precipitation are identified and a first evaluation of the ability of five phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to simulate these processes is performed. In this case study, the authors develop a set of process-based analyses forming a framework for evaluating model credibility in the northeast region. This framework includes evaluation of models' ability to simulate observed spatial patterns and amounts of mean precipitation; dynamical atmospheric circulation features, moisture transport, and moisture divergence important to interannual precipitation variability; long-term trends; and SST patterns important to northeastregion summer precipitation.Wet summers in the northeast region are associated with 1) negative 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies centered near the Great Lakes; 2) positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies over the western Atlantic east of the Mid-Atlantic states; 3) northeastward moisture flow and increased moisture convergence along the Eastern Seaboard; 4) increased moisture divergence off the U.S. Southeast coast; and 5) positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the western Atlantic, possibly related to cold tropical Atlantic SSTs and southwest ridging of the North Atlantic anticyclone. Models are generally able to simulate these features but vary compared to observations. Models capture regional moisture transport and convergence anomalies associated with wet summers reasonably well, despite errors in simulating the climatology. Identifying sources of intermodel differences in future projections is important, determining processes relevant for model credibility. In particular, changes in moisture divergence control the sign of northeast-region summer precipitation changes, making it a critical component of process-level analyses for the region. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51068
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, United States
Recommended Citation:
Thibeault J.M.,Seth A.. A framework for evaluating model credibility for warm-season precipitation in northeastern north america: A case study of CMIP5 simulations and projections[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(2)