DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00607.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84916237434
论文题名: Dynamical simulations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using observed low-frequency SST oscillation imposed on CMIP5 model RCP4.5 SST projections
作者: LaRow T.E. ; Stefanova L. ; Seitz C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 21 起始页码: 8055
结束页码: 8069
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Production platforms
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; General circulation model
; Global atmospheric models
; Multidecadal variability
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Tropical variability
; Climate models
; atmospheric modeling
; climate modeling
; decadal variation
; general circulation model
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; tropical cyclone
; twenty first century
; wind velocity
; Atlantic Coast [North America]
; Atlantic Coast [United States]
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; United States
英文摘要: The effects on early and late twenty-first-century North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics resulting from imposing the patterns of maximum/minimum phases of the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) onto projected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are examined using a 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. By imposing the observed maximum positive and negative phases of the AMO onto two CMIP5 SST projections from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, this study places bounds on future North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the early (2020-39) and late (2080-99) twenty-first century. Averaging over both time periods and bothAMOphases, the mean named tropical cyclones (NTCs) count increases by 35% when compared to simulations using observed SSTs from 1982 to 2009. The positive AMO simulations produce approximately a 68% increase in mean NTC count, while the negative AMO simulations are statistically indistinguishable from the mean NTC count determined from the 1995-2009 simulations-a period of observed positive AMO phase. Examination of the tropical cyclone track densities shows a statistically significant increase in the tracks along the East Coast of the United States in the future simulations compared to the models' 1982-2009 climate simulations. The increase occurs regardless of AMO phase, although the negative phase produces higher track densities. The maximum wind speeds increase by 6%, in agreement with other climate change studies. Finally, the NTC-related precipitation is found to increase (approximately by 13%) compared to the 1982-2009 simulations. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51079
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
LaRow T.E.,Stefanova L.,Seitz C.. Dynamical simulations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using observed low-frequency SST oscillation imposed on CMIP5 model RCP4.5 SST projections[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(21)