DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00830.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899065813
论文题名: Simulations of the present and late-twenty-first-century western north pacific tropical cyclone activity using a regional model
作者: Wu L. ; Chou C. ; Chen C.-T. ; Huang R. ; Knutson T.R. ; Sirutis J.J. ; Garner S.T. ; Kerr C. ; Lee C.-J. ; Feng Y.-C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 9 起始页码: 3405
结束页码: 3424
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Asian summer monsoons
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Future projections
; Interannual variability
; Significance levels
; Statistical significance
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Western North Pacific
; Hurricanes
; annual variation
; atmospheric modeling
; climatology
; monsoon
; summer
; tropical cyclone
; twenty first century
; China
; Japan
; Korea
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Taiwan
英文摘要: Ahigh-resolution regional atmospheric model is used to simulate present-day western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and to investigate the projected changes for the late twenty-first century. Compared to observations, the model can realistically simulate many basic features of the WNP TC activity climatology, such as the TC genesis location, track, and lifetime.Anumber of spatial and temporal features of observed TC interannual variability are captured, although observed variations in basinwide TC number are not. A relatively well-simulated feature is the contrast of years when the Asian summer monsoon trough extends eastward (retreats westward), more (fewer) TCs form within the southeastern quadrant of the WNP, and the corresponding TC activity is above (below) normal over most parts of the WNP east of 125°E. Future projections with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) A1B scenario show a weak tendency for decreases in the number ofWNPTCs, and for increases in the more intense TCs; these simulated changes are significant at the 80% level. The present-day simulation of intensity is limited to storms of intensity less than about 55ms-1. There is also a weak (80% significance level) tendency for projectedWNPTC activity to shift poleward under global warming. A regional-scale feature is a projected increase of the TC activity north of Taiwan, which would imply an increase in TCs making landfall in north China, the Korean Peninsula, and parts of Japan. However, given the weak statistical significance found for the simulated changes, an assessment of the robustness of such regional-scale projections will require further study. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51103
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wu L.,Chou C.,Chen C.-T.,et al. Simulations of the present and late-twenty-first-century western north pacific tropical cyclone activity using a regional model[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(9)