DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00264.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84907587166
论文题名: Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone
作者: Seviour W.J.M. ; Hardiman S.C. ; Gray L.J. ; Butchart N. ; Maclachlan C. ; Scaife A.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 19 起始页码: 7462
结束页码: 7474
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal prediction
; Southern Annular Mode
; Southern oscillation
; Stratophere-troposphere couplings
; Ozone
; annual variation
; atmospheric circulation
; concentration (composition)
; forecasting method
; hindcasting
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; ozone
; polar vortex
; prediction
; Southern Hemisphere
; Southern Oscillation
; stratosphere
; troposphere
; Antarctica
英文摘要: Using a set of seasonal hindcast simulations produced by the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), significant predictability of the southern annular mode (SAM) is demonstrated during the austral spring. The correlation of the September-November mean SAM with observed values is 0.64, which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level [confidence interval: (0.18, 0.92)], and is similar to that found recently for the North Atlantic Oscillation in the same system. Significant skill is also found in the prediction of the strength of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex at 1 month average lead times. Because of the observed strong correlation between interannual variability in the strength of the Antarctic stratospheric circulation and ozone concentrations, it is possible to make skillful predictions of Antarctic column ozone amounts. By studying the variation of forecast skill with time and height, it is shown that skillful predictions of the SAM are significantly influenced by stratospheric anomalies that descend with time and are coupled with the troposphere. This effect allows skillful statistical forecasts of the October mean SAM to be produced based only on midstratosphere anomalies on 1 August. Together, these results both demonstrate a significant advance in the skill of seasonal forecasts of the Southern Hemisphere and highlight the importance of accurate modeling and observation of the stratosphere in producing long-range forecasts. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51132
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Seviour W.J.M.,Hardiman S.C.,Gray L.J.,et al. Skillful seasonal prediction of the southern annular mode and Antarctic Ozone[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(19)