DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00158.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906333389
论文题名: On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity
作者: Vecchi G.A. ; Delworth T. ; Gudgel R. ; Kapnick S. ; Rosati A. ; Wittenberg A.T. ; Zeng F. ; Anderson W. ; Balaji V. ; Dixon K. ; Jia L. ; Kim H.-S. ; Krishnamurthy L. ; Msadek R. ; Stern W.F. ; Underwood S.D. ; Villarini G. ; Yang X. ; Zhang S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 21 起始页码: 7994
结束页码: 8016
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aggregates
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Climate prediction
; Forecasting techniques
; General circulation model
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Seasonal forecasting
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; general circulation model
; global climate
; hurricane
; marine atmosphere
; regional climate
; sea ice
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a hazard to life and property and a prominent element of the global climate system; therefore, understanding and predicting TC location, intensity, and frequency is of both societal and scientific significance. Methodologies exist to predict basinwide, seasonally aggregated TC activity months, seasons, and even years in advance. It is shown that a newly developed high-resolution global climate model can produce skillful forecasts of seasonal TC activity on spatial scales finer than basinwide, from months and seasons in advance of the TC season. The climate model used here is targeted at predicting regional climate and the statistics of weather extremes on seasonal to decadal time scales, and comprises high-resolution (50km × 50 km) atmosphere and land components as well as more moderate-resolution(∼100 km) sea ice and ocean components. The simulation of TC climatology and interannual variations in this climate model is substantially improved by correcting systematic ocean biases through "flux adjustment."Asuite of 12-month duration retrospective forecasts is performed over the 1981-2012 period, after initializing the climate model to observationally constrained conditions at the start of each forecast period, using both the standard and fluxadjusted versions of the model. The standard and flux-adjusted forecasts exhibit equivalent skill at predicting Northern Hemisphere TC season sea surface temperature, but the flux-adjusted model exhibits substantially improved basinwide and regional TC activity forecasts, highlighting the role of systematic biases in limiting the quality of TC forecasts. These results suggest that dynamical forecasts of seasonally aggregated regional TC activity months in advance are feasible. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NOAA, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51158
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Ocean Science and Technology School, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan, South Korea; Engility, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States; IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Vecchi G.A.,Delworth T.,Gudgel R.,et al. On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(21)