DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00476.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906333388
论文题名: Predicting a decadal shift in North Atlantic climate variability using the GFDL forecast system
作者: Msadek R. ; Delworth T.L. ; Rosati A. ; Anderson W. ; Vecchi G. ; Chang Y.-S. ; Dixon K. ; Gudgel R.G. ; Stern W. ; Wittenberg A. ; Yang X. ; Zeng F. ; Zhang R. ; Zhang S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2014
卷: 27, 期: 17 起始页码: 6472
结束页码: 6496
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Climate variability
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Decadal predictions
; North Atlantic Currents
; Overturning circulation
; Physical mechanism
; Sea ice concentration
; Forecasting
英文摘要: Decadal prediction experiments were conducted as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using the GFDL ClimateModel, version 2.1 (CM2.1) forecast system. The abrupt warming of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) that was observed in the mid-1990s is considered as a case study to evaluate forecast capabilities and better understand the reasons for the observed changes. Initializing theCM2.1 coupled systemproduces high skill in retrospectively predicting themid-1990s shift, which is not captured by the uninitialized forecasts.All the hindcasts initialized in the early 1990s show a warming of the SPG; however, only the ensemble-mean hindcasts initialized in 1995 and 1996 are able to reproduce the observed abrupt warming and the associated decrease and contraction of the SPG. Examination of the physical mechanisms responsible for the successful retrospective predictions indicates that initializing the ocean is key to predicting themid-1990s warming. The successful initialized forecasts show an increasedAtlanticmeridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Current transport, which drive an increased advection of warm saline subtropical waters northward, leading to a westward shift of the subpolar front and, subsequently, a warming and spindown of the SPG. Significant seasonal climate impacts are predicted as the SPG warms, including a reduced sea ice concentration over the Arctic, an enhanced warming over the central United States during summer and fall, and a northward shift of themean ITCZ.These climate anomalies are similar to those observed during awarmphase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which is encouraging for future predictions of North Atlantic climate. © 2014 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/51159
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States; UCAR, Boulder, CO, United States; Kongju National University, Gongju, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Msadek R.,Delworth T.L.,Rosati A.,et al. Predicting a decadal shift in North Atlantic climate variability using the GFDL forecast system[J]. Journal of Climate,2014-01-01,27(17)